Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate, Fulmer, dan Taffler Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress
Studi Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Pakaian & Barang Mewah Yang Terdaftar di BEI Periode 2021-2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58192/ebismen.v4i3.3661Keywords:
financial distress, Altman Z-Score, Springate, Fulmer, TafflerAbstract
This research is motivated by significant fluctuations and a decline in profits for companies in the clothing and luxury goods subsector listed on the IDX for the period 2021-2023, indicating potential financial difficulties. This research aims to evaluate the company's condition using four prediction models, namely Altman-ZScore, Springate, Fulmer, and Taffler, and to determine the most suitable model for the sector. The method applied is quantitative comparative with a purposive sample of 11 companies, using financial statement data from 2021-2023 and analyzed using the formulas for each predictive model. The research findings indicate that the four models produce different predictions regarding the company's financial condition. Additionally, there are differences in the accuracy levels of the four models. The Springate and Taffler models achieved the highest accuracy rate of 85%, followed by Altman at 67% and Fulmer at 64%. The findings of this study confirm that the Springate model is the most reliable tool for early warning for companies and stakeholders, enabling faster preventive measures to prevent bankruptcy.
References
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x
Anugrah, M. D. (2019). Analisis Model Altman, Taffler, Dan Zmijewski Dalam Memprediksi Perusahaan Yang Delisting Secara Paksa Karena Kegagalan Keuangan Dari Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2010-2014. Technobiz : International Journal of Business, 2(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.33365/tb.v2i1.283
Apsari, C. M., Pristiana, U., & Brahmayanti, I. A. S. (2024). Analisis Akurasi Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Zmijewski Untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Sektor Rokok. Indonesian Journal of Innovation Multidisipliner Researh, 2(3). https://doi.org/10.69693/ijim.v2i3.171
Efendi, M. J., & Dewianawati, D. (2021). Manajemen Keuangan. Bintang Pustaka Madani.
Gunawan, D., & Warninda, T. D. (2022). Prediksi Financial Distress Menggunakan Model Taffler Dan Grover Pada Perusahaan Yang Terdampak Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Bisnis, Manajemen, dan Teknososiopreneur, 1(1), 01–16. https://doi.org/10.31326/bimtek.v1i1.1109
Haryani, S., & Syafei, J. (2023). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Jasa Sektor Transportasi Di BEI Periode 2019-2021. 1(4).
Kasmir. (2021). Analisis Laporan Keuangan (Revisi). Rajawali Pers.
Kristanti, F. T. (2019). Financial Distress Teori Dan Perkembangannya Dalam Konteks Indonesia. Inteligensia Media.
Kusumaningrum, T. M. (2021). Perbandingan Tingkat Akurasi Model-Model Prediksi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Yang Termasuk Kantar’s 2020 TOP 30 Global Retails (EUR). Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi), 5(3).
Mayasari, D., Ningrum, E. P., Kalsum, U., Syahwildan, M., Mahdi, Wibowo, T. S., Abadi, S. P., Suhendar, Hakim, M. Z., & Adinugroho, I. (2023). Manajemen Keuangan. Adab.
Nida, A. M., Widuri, T., & Arida, R. W. (2024). Analisa Komparasi Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Model Grover Dan Ohlson Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Alas Kaki Yang Terdaftar Di Bei Tahun 2017-2021. Jurnal Neraca Manajemen, Ekonomi, 4(4).
Peter, P., Herlina, H., & Wiraatmaja, J. (2021). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Melalui Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate’s, Dan Model Fulmer Pada Industri Semen Di Indonesia. Ultima Management, 13(2), 369–378.
Sujarweni, V. W. (2020). Manajemen Keuangan Teori, Aplikasi danHasil Penelitian. Pustakabarupress.
Wicaksana, G. B., & Mawardi, W. (2023). Analisis Perbandingan Prediksi Financial Distress menggunakan Model Altman, Grover, Ohlson, Springate dan Zmijewski: Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Sub Industri Perkebunan dan Tanaman Pangan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode Tahun 2017-2021. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Forum Manajemen Indonesia - e-ISSN 3026-4499, 1, 376–392. https://doi.org/10.47747/snfmi.v1i.1515
Widiasmara, A., & Rahayu, H. C. (2019). Perbedaan Model Ohlson, Model Taffler Dan Model Springate Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress. Inventory: Jurnal Akuntansi, 3(2), 141. https://doi.org/10.25273/inventory.v3i2.5242
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Manajemen
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
