Analisis Pengaruh Kenaikan Tarif PPN dari 10% menjadi 11% terhadap Konsumsi Rumah Tangga dan Inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2019–2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the differences in household consumption and inflation before and after the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate increase from 10% to 11%, as well as the effect of the VAT rate increase on household consumption and inflation in Indonesia. The data used is quarterly time series data for the 2019–2025 period obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The analytical methods used in this study include descriptive statistical analysis, normality tests, independent sample t-tests, and simple linear regression. The difference tests were conducted using original household consumption and inflation data to examine differences before and after the VAT rate increase. Meanwhile, the regression analysis used growth data to examine the effect of the VAT rate change on household consumption and inflation. The results show a significant difference in household consumption and inflation before and after the 11% VAT rate increase at the 10% significance level. The simple linear regression results indicate that the VAT rate increase has no significant effect on household consumption, but does have a significant effect on inflation at the 10% significance level. These findings indicate that the VAT rate increase has a greater impact on inflation than on household consumption. This indicates that Indonesian consumption tends to remain stable despite the VAT rate increase, as consumption is still dominated by primary needs, which are inelastic.