Analisis Dampak Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika dalam Pertumbuhan Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2019-2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of fluctuations in the Rupiah exchange rate against the United States Dollar on Indonesia’s economic growth during the 2019–2025 period. The exchange rate is one of the macroeconomic indicators that plays an important role in maintaining national economic stability, as it affects international trade activities, investment, inflation, and economic growth. This research employs a quantitative approach using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to examine both the short-term and long-term relationships between the exchange rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The data used consist of secondary time series data from 2019–2025 obtained from Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik), and the Ministry of Trade. The findings indicate that the Rupiah exchange rate experienced a significant depreciation trend during the research period, mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, and global economic uncertainty. The ARDL estimation results reveal that the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the short term, particularly through a one-month lag mechanism. However, in the long term, the exchange rate does not have a significant effect on GDP growth. These findings suggest that the Indonesian economy possesses considerable resilience to external pressures, supported by domestic consumption, government spending, and investment. Furthermore, the model stability test results demonstrate that the research model is stable and capable of predicting economic movements effectively. Therefore, exchange rate stability remains an important factor in sustaining Indonesia’s economic growth.