Pengaruh BI Rate dan Inflasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit UMKM di Jawa Timur: Analisis Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang dengan Pendekatan ARDL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58192/ebismen.v5i2.4471Keywords:
MSME credit, BI Rate, inflation, ARDL, East JavaAbstract
This study analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of the BI Rate and inflation on MSME credit growth in East Java over the period January 2020 to December 2024, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Cointegration test results on the final model with a structural break dummy confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, with an F-statistic of 4.6137 exceeding the critical value at the 5% significance level. Inflation is found to have a positive and significant effect on MSME credit growth in both the short run (coefficient = 1.5466; p-value = 0.034) and the long run (coefficient = 1.7046; p-value = 0.040), while the BI Rate shows no significant effect in either time horizon. The Error Correction Term (ECT) of -0.9073 indicates that 90.73% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected within one month. These findings suggest that monetary policy transmission through the interest rate instrument is weak with respect to MSME credit in East Java, while regional price stability constitutes a more dominant determinant. Non-interest rate instruments, including targeted fiscal interventions, may therefore warrant greater consideration in supporting MSME financing access.
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