Dampak Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Terhadap Perdagangan Internasional

Abstract

As international trade activities are increased, there are more regulative practices which might  be  barriers to trade. One  of such hindrances is exchange rate volatility that  affects trade activities both  directly  and indirectly. Exchange rate volatility of currencies can  affect  the  trade engagements and  as well as the  trade balance of a country. One  of the  implications of the  study is that  the  impacts of monetary policy changes on trade activities can  be  noticed significantly in the  long-term. While impacts on export levels  are usually immediate, import levels are changed in long-run. The research analyzes the correlation between inflation and  devaluation and  clearly  states their  impacts on  trade balance. The  case study about devaluation of the  currency of Azerbaijan elaborates the  impacts of currency volatility on exports which is illustrated and analyzed in this research. Moreover, inflation and  devaluation correlations and  their impacts on import level of a country are studied through correlation and  multiple  regression analyses based on the  data exported from  OECD and  World Bank.  The  results conclude that  exchange rate volatility significantly impacts the trade balance in terms of imports and  exports. Given the  results, exchange rate is a non-trade barrier and affects foreign trade.