Analisis Pengaruh Investasi, Upah Miinimum, dan Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) Kabupaten Gresik

Abstract

Gresik Regency is one of the largest industrial centers in East Java, supported by high investment realization and competitive minimum wage policies. However, this economic growth trend is confronted with the dynamic fluctuations of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR). This study aims to analyze the effect of investment, Regency Minimum Wage (UMK), and population size on the Open Unemployment Rate in Gresik Regency for the 2011-2025 period. The method used is multiple linear regression analysis with a quantitative approach, utilizing secondary time series data sourced from BPS and BKPM, processed using EViews 12 software. The results indicate that simultaneously, investment, UMK, and population size have a significant effect on the Open Unemployment Rate. Partially, the UMK has a positive and significant effect on the Open Unemployment Rate, indicating that high wage setting creates an excess supply of labor and triggers companies to implement mechanization and efficiency measures to reduce employee cost burdens. Population size has a negative and significant effect due to the high labor absorption in the service sector and local MSME ecosystems. Meanwhile, investment has no significant effect due to the dominance of capital-intensive investments that absorb minimal local labor. The Adjusted R-Squared value of 0.3835 implies that the model can explain 38.35% of the variation in the Open Unemployment Rate in Gresik Regency.