Ecological Development Trade-Offs
A Delphi-Based Framework for Managing Flood Risk under Infrastructure Expansion and Oil Palm Land Conversion in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58192/wawasan.v4i4.4944Keywords:
Ecological Development, Flood Risk, Infrastructure Expansion, Land-Use Change, Oil Palm Land ConversionAbstract
Flood risk has become an increasingly significant challenge in developing regions experiencing rapid infrastructure expansion and agricultural land conversion. In Indonesia, economic development driven by infrastructure projects and oil palm plantation growth has generated substantial benefits while simultaneously creating ecological pressures that may increase flood vulnerability. This study aims to develop an ecological development framework for managing flood risk under conditions of infrastructure expansion and oil palm land conversion. A qualitative research design employing the Delphi method was adopted to obtain expert consensus regarding the key drivers of flood risk and sustainable development indicators. The study involved nine experts representing academia, regional planning institutions, environmental agencies, disaster management organizations, watershed authorities, and plantation governance institutions. Data were collected through three iterative Delphi rounds and analyzed using thematic analysis, median scores, interquartile range, and percentage agreement. The findings indicate that forest cover loss, watershed degradation, reduced infiltration capacity, uncontrolled land conversion, and weak spatial planning enforcement are the most critical determinants of flood risk. The results further reveal that infrastructure expansion and oil palm development influence flood vulnerability indirectly through land-use change and ecological degradation pathways. Based on expert consensus, the study proposes an Ecological Development Framework that integrates environmental governance, institutional capacity, and land-use management into regional development planning. The framework provides practical guidance for balancing economic growth objectives with ecological sustainability and disaster resilience in flood-prone regions.
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