Pengaruh Penggunaan Internet terhadap Peningkatan Cybercrime di Indonesia pada Era Transformasi Digital Tahun 2015–2024

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which internet adoption contributes to the escalation of cybercrime incidents across Indonesia from 2015 to 2024. The analysis employs a balanced panel dataset encompassing all 34 provinces of Indonesia, yielding 340 total observations. Two complementary estimation frameworks are applied in tandem: the Panel Error Correction Model (Panel ECM) with Fixed Effects estimation and the Pooled Mean Group-ARDL (PMG-ARDL) approach following Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). A comprehensive battery of panel diagnostics is conducted, including unit root tests (LLC and IPS), cointegration tests (Pedroni and Kao), estimator selection via the Hausman test, and cross-sectional dependence detection using the Pesaran CD test. The results demonstrate that internet penetration exerts a statistically significant and positive long-run effect on cybercrime incidence, with the magnitude of this relationship substantially attenuated by educational attainment levels. The validity of the error correction mechanism is confirmed, indicating a stable convergence process toward long-run equilibrium. The theoretical underpinning draws on Becker's (1968) economics of crime framework: internet expansion systematically reduces the transaction costs associated with cyber offenses, broadens the pool of prospective targets, and elevates the expected utility calculation for potential offenders. Policy implications underscore the imperative of embedding digital literacy programmes within every internet infrastructure expansion initiative, with particular emphasis on provinces experiencing rapid connectivity growth yet exhibiting limited digital security capability.